A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
