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It simply cannot continue. The logic defies sense that it persists. And yet, it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered the weekend's top-flight encounter at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea have shown vulnerability with a lead, especially at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable habit of snatching away victories after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post following his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might feel some fortune was overdue, and it's undeniable the first goal had a significant element of luck. At the moment, though, Lady Luck seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Streak

The last nine of these eleven straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have kept a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula should not, yet pundits have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will eventually align with their performances or if their level of play can rise to match the points haul.

This seems unsustainable be possible, but everyone has been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not just a trait of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; 18 of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored nine goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at influencing games through his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, strengthening the center and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's zero before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were commanding and could easily have won by a greater margin. Once again, opposing manager Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is better at devising a game plan with preparation time than adapting in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of individuals producing pieces of sensational quality to turn games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish home has become a recurring theme. It was Malen who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough individuals within it delivering to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they must be considered as in the title race, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have assembled their own sequence of single-goal victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship pedigree.