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This Sunday, the Central African Republic will conduct a crucial quadruple election, including the presidency, national assembly, and local offices.

A Competitive Presidential Field

Seven candidates are competing for the presidency, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were cleared to stand by the high court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The challengers aims to tap into widespread discontent in a country where violence remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to commend the remarkable recovery of the nation," noted a senior UN diplomat, adding that obstacles remain.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is largely predicted to extend his run. He first entered politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, holding the post until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a sectarian conflict.

After a chaotic three-year interim, his reputation for impartiality from the main militias fueled his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Logistical Hurdles

Concerns persist that logistical problems and violence could disrupt the vote, especially in the countryside. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering protection and organizational aid that the state's crumbling infrastructure cannot manage.

Additional problems include the electoral roll being made available only digitally, a major hurdle in a nation with limited internet access. These issues have led to an opposition boycott and could, according to observers, "exclude many of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean expanded sway for outside interests.

The president has put faith in the private military group Wagner for personal security, and despite its founder's death, has resisted calls to fold its fighters into a new structure. In contrast, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on commercial interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Recent reports have claimed the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to make way for a Rwandan livestock operation. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "determined to dispose of the country piece by piece."

Despite a recent peace accord with rebel groups offering hope of calm, the election proceeds under a cloud of uncertainty and geopolitical rivalry.