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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.