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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.