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Within the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.